UK Migration And Population Projections Not So Cut And Dry
The crudest way to view the projections by the Office for National Statistics of population increase is the way that most people will see them: high immigration causing a rapid rise in numbers in an overcrowded island.
Things are a good deal more complex than that. The projection is not a forecast — and the numbers the Office for National Statistics comes up with are based on estimates of the population and trend growth sometime in the past (in this case, mid-2008). The same exercise done now would come up with a revised projection. As it happens, a lower one — because since mid-2008 net migration has dropped sharply, according to estimates (that word again).
Indeed, it is the Institute for Public Policy Research’s best guess (based on the lessons of history but no more than that) that net migration will continue falling for some time yet. The reasons: the end of the great migration boom from the former communist countries that have joined the European Union in recent years; tighter immigration controls beginning to have an effect; and most of all, the impact of the economic downturn.
So 70 million by 2029 is a point-in-history projection, not an inevitability.
Simply put, the future doesn’t always look like the past, but the projections game only has the past up to a certain point to go on. It is an interesting exercise to project ahead and see where the numbers might end up. But it doesn’t give you a certain picture of the future.
It is also worth mentioning that while the Office for National Statistics makes much of immigration, they also note that the population is ageing. If this projection is right, the population rise as a result of migration will be necessary and welcome. Migration is one of the ways in which much-needed young working people will come in to our economy and pay taxes.
To jump to the conclusion that a rising population is a negative consequence of high immigration is simplistic at best. Having the numbers may be useful, but you still need to do the analysis.
Tim Finch is Head of Migration at the Institute for Public Policy Research
Topics: Britain, communitst countries, economic downturn, Economy, England, foreigners, illegal immigration, immigration, migration, migration boom, Office for National Statistics, overcrowding, population growth, population increase, tighter immigration, UK, United Kingdom
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