Singapore External Trade Up By 21% For 2010
After a decline of 19 per cent in 2009, Singapore’s external trade has rebounded by 21 per cent in 2010 due to an increase in both exports and imports.
Total trade for 2011 is projected to increase by 8 to 10 per cent, up from the previous forecast of 6 to 8 per cent.
Singapore’s total trade rose by 21 per cent to reach S$902 billion in 2010 after a decline of 19 per cent in 2009. The expansion in external trade can be attributed to an increase in both exports and imports.
NODX grew by 23 per cent in 2010 in contrast to the 11 per cent decline in 2009 due to higher sales of both electronic and non-electronic NODX.
NODX to all markets expanded in 2010. The biggest contributors to the increase in 2010 were the EU 27 (+31 per cent), China (+31 per cent) and Hong Kong (+36 per cent).
NORX increased by 18 per cent in 2010 after the previous year’s decline of 16 per cent on higher re-exports of both electronic and non-electronic NORX.
In 2011, total trade is projected to increase by between 8.0 and 10 per cent, up from the previous forecast of growth between 6.0 and 8.0 per cent, while NODX is also expected to expand by between 8.0 and 10 per cent, up from the previous forecast of between 6.0 and 8.0 per cent.
The rise in external trade was due to an increase in both oil and non-oil trade. Oil trade rose by 31 per cent in 2010 after the previous year’s decline of 31 per cent.
Non-oil trade grew by 18 per cent in 2010, after the decrease of 15 per cent in 2009.
Details on the performance of major trade components and key trading markets can be found in Annexes A and B.
On a quarter-on-quarter seasonally adjusted (q-o-q SA) basis, Singapore’s total external trade declined by 0.8 per cent in 4Q 2010, compared to the previous quarter’s rise of 0.2 per cent. On a year-on-year (y-o-y) basis, Singapore’s total external trade expanded by 12 per cent in 4Q 2010 after the previous quarter’s growth of 18 per cent. The level of total trade reached S$231 billion in 4Q 2010, lower than the previous quarter’s achievement of S$234 billion. Total exports and total imports grew y-o-y by 14 per cent and 9.7 per cent respectively in 4Q 2010.
NON-OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS
Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) expanded by 23 per cent in 2010, in contrast to the preceding year’s 11 per cent contraction, due to higher sales of both electronic and non-electronic NODX.
Electronic NODX grew by 26 per cent in 2010, after a decline of 18 per cent in 2009. Non-electronic NODX rose by 21 per cent in 2010, in contrast to the previous year’s contraction of 5.7 per cent.
On a q-o-q SA basis, NODX declined marginally by 0.3 per cent in 4Q 2010 after the previous quarter’s rise of 1.4 per cent. On a y-o-y basis, NODX increased by 18 per cent in 4Q 2010, following the 24 per cent expansion registered in 3Q 2010, on higher shipments of both electronic and non-electronic NODX. Electronic domestic exports increased by 14 per cent in 4Q 2010, following the previous quarter’s 27 per cent rise. Non-electronic NODX grew by 20 per cent in 4Q 2010, following the 22 per cent expansion in the previous quarter.
PRODUCTS
Electronic products
Domestic exports of electronic products (comprising 37 per cent of NODX) expanded by 26 per cent in 2010, after the decline of 18 per cent in 2009. The rise in electronic NODX can be attributed to higher domestic exports of ICs (+42 per cent), parts of ICs (+60 per cent) and parts of PCs (+8.4 per cent).
On a y-o-y basis, domestic exports of electronics rose by 14 per cent in 4Q 2010, following the expansion of 27 per cent in 3Q 2010. The increase in electronic NODX can be attributed to higher domestic exports of ICs (+44 per cent), diodes & transistors (+35 per cent) and PCs (+73 per cent).
Non-Electronic Products
Non-electronic NODX (comprising 63 per cent of NODX) grew by 21 per cent in 2010, in contrast to the decline of 5.7 per cent in 2009. The increase in non-electronic NODX can be attributed to higher domestic exports of petrochemicals (+42 per cent), specialised machinery (+145 per cent) and primary chemicals (+54 per cent).
10. On a y-o-y basis, domestic exports of non-electronics expanded by 20 per cent in 4Q 2010 after a growth of 22 per cent in 3Q 2010. The rise in non-electronic NODX was led by higher domestic exports of specialised machinery (+116 per cent), petrochemicals (+27 per cent) and measuring instruments (+54 per cent).
MARKETS
Top 10 markets. NODX to all top markets rose in 2010. The biggest contributors to the increase in 2010 were the EU 27 (+31 per cent), China (+31 per cent) and Hong Kong (+36 per cent).
Electronic NODX to all top markets grew in 2010. The biggest contributors to the electronic NODX increase in 2010 were the EU 27 (+46 per cent), Hong Kong (+34 per cent) and China (+44 per cent).
Non-electronic NODX to all top markets grew in 2010. The biggest contributors to the increase in 2010 were the EU 27 (+24 per cent), the US (+47 per cent) and China (+26 per cent).
OIL DOMESTIC EXPORTS
Oil domestic exports increased by 28 per cent in 2010, after the decline of 34 per cent in 2009. The expansion of oil domestic exports in 2010 was driven mainly by higher oil sales to Malaysia (+57 per cent), Panama (+32 per cent) and Liberia (+65 per cent). In volume terms, oil domestic exports rose by 6.5 per cent in 2010 after posting a decline of 1.5 per cent in 2009 (See Annex F).
On a q-o-q SA basis, oil domestic exports increased by 14 per cent in 4Q 2010 after a decline of 8.6 per cent in 3Q 2010. On a y-o-y basis, oil domestic exports rose by 12 per cent in 4Q 2010 following the increase of 9.2 per cent in 3Q 2010. In volume terms, oil domestic exports expanded by 3.1 per cent in 4Q 2010, following the 2.0 per cent expansion in 3Q 2010.
NON-OIL RE-EXPORTS
Non-oil re-exports (NORX) grew by 18 per cent in 2010 after a decline of 16 per cent in 2009 due to higher sales of both electronic and non-electronic NORX. Electronic re-exports expanded by 22 per cent in 2010 in contrast to the previous year’s decline of 18 per cent on higher re-exports of ICs (+23 per cent), parts of PCs (+21 per cent) and diodes & transistors (+27 per cent). Non-electronic NORX increased by 13 per cent in 2010, after contracting by 12 per cent in 2009, due to higher re-exports of petrochemicals (+88 per cent), non-monetary gold (+62 per cent) and electrical machinery (+30 per cent).
On a q-o-q SA basis, NORX declined marginally by 0.8 per cent in 4Q 2010 after the preceding quarter’s increase of 2.1 per cent. On a y-o-y basis, NORX grew by 13 per cent in 4Q 2010, following a rise of 18 per cent in the previous quarter. The NORX increase can be attributed to higher shipments of electronic and non-electronic NORX. Electronic NORX expanded by 9.6 per cent in 4Q 2010, after the 23 per cent growth in 3Q 2010, due to higher re-exports of ICs (+9.0 per cent), parts of PCs (+12 per cent) and disk drives (+132 per cent). Non-electronic NORX grew by 17 per cent in 4Q 2010, after the previous quarter’s rise of 13 per cent. The increase in non-electronic NORX was due to higher re-exports of non-monetary gold (+82 per cent), petrochemicals (+62 per cent) and aircraft parts (+32 per cent).
NORX to all of the top 10 NORX markets, except South Korea, increased in 2010. The biggest contributors to the NORX expansion in 2010 were Hong Kong (+25 per cent), Malaysia (+20 per cent) and China (+22 per cent). Specifically, NORX to Hong Kong increased by 25 per cent in 2010, after the previous year’s decline of 3.1 per cent. NORX to Malaysia expanded by 20 per cent in 2010, in contrast to the 21 per cent decrease in the previous year. NORX to China also rose by 22 per cent in 2010, after contracting by 17 per cent in 2009 (See Annex G).
OIL RE-EXPORTS
Oil re-exports grew by 44 per cent in 2010, up from the previous year’s contraction of 24 per cent. The rise in oil re-exports in 2010 was due to increased shipments of oil to Indonesia (+59 per cent), Malaysia (+56 per cent) and China (+70 per cent). In volume terms, growth of oil re-exports expanded by 20 per cent in 2010, following the rise of 13 per cent in 2009.
20. On a q-o-q SA basis, oil re-exports decreased by 10 per cent in 4Q 2010 after a marginal decline of 1.9 per cent in 3Q 2010. On a y-o-y basis, oil re-exports rose by 14 per cent in 4Q 2010, following an increase of 44 per cent in 3Q 2010. In volume terms, oil re-exports expanded by 10 per cent in 4Q 2010, following the 42 per cent expansion in 3Q 2010.
REVISED OUTLOOK FOR 2011
Singapore’s 2010 total trade growth of 20.7 per cent was within our previously projected range of between 20.0 and 21.0 per cent. The NODX increase of 22.8 per cent in 2010 was close to our projected 2010 growth of 23.0 to 24.0 per cent.
Global economic conditions have improved in the second half of 2010 with broad recovery in global financial conditions, amid lingering vulnerabilities. Downsides remained in the global economic conditions with rising commodities prices and possibility of tensions in the euro area periphery spreading to the core of Europe.
Total trade is projected to grow by between 8.0 and 10.0 per cent in 2011, up from the previous forecast of between 6.0 and 8.0 per cent. NODX growth in 2011 is also revised upwards to between 8.0 and 10.0 per cent from the previous forecast of 6.0 to 8.0 per cent.
The key factors contributing to the revised outlook for 2011 are as follows:
The global economy is expected to register 4.4 per cent growth in 2011
The IMF, in its latest January 2011 World Economic Outlook Update, expects the global economy to grow by 4.4 per cent in 2011, revising upwards its previous forecast of 4.2 per cent growth. The upgrade in the forecast is due to better than expected economic activity especially in the second half of 2010.
Increase in private domestic demand in developed economies
Recent data show that private domestic demand in developed economies is slowly recovering. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, grew at 4.4 percent in the last quarter of 2010 – the fastest pace since the first quarter of 2006. This is a boost to export-led countries like Singapore.
Moderate growth in electronics demand
The growth in demand for global electronics is projected to be moderate in 2011 compared to 2010, due to the base effect of high sales in 2010. Global electronics demand is expected to increase by an average of 5 per cent in 2011 according to the forecasts of major semiconductor industry players and IT analysts. With the Asia-Pacific accounting for 54 per cent of the global semiconductor market, Singapore’s electronic NODX and NORX are expected to ride on this demand.
Growing oil prices
Oil prices have substantially increased in response to strong global demand and the uncertain political situation in the Middle East. Oil prices are now expected to be around US$90 to US$100 per barrel in 2011, compared to the previously expected US$80 to US$85 per barrel.
Topics: 2011, Asia, business, China, commodities, domestic exports, economic development, economic growth, economic recovery, Economy, electronic goods, electronics production, employment, expansion, External Trade Figures, finance, GDP, Governance, government, gross domestic product, Hong Kong, Indonesia, investment, Japan, jobs, Malaysia, Ministry of Trade and Industry, monitor, news, NODX, Non-oil Re-exports, NORI, NORX, Oil Domestic Exports, Pacific, services sector, Singapore, South Korea, Thailand, trade, transport, US, wholesale trade
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