Australia reports mixed outlook for winter crops
The outlook for winter crop production is variable across the Australian grains belt because of patchy rainfall in some regions, according to ABARE’s September issue of the Australian crop report.
“Despite the variable conditions across regions, the winter grains harvest for Australia as a whole is forecast to increase in 2009-10,” said Dr Terry Sheales, Deputy Executive Director, ABARE, on releasing the report.
Australia’s winter grains production is forecast to be around 36 million tonnes in 2009-10, 2.8 million tonnes more than the previous season and 1.2 million tonnes more than ABARE’s forecast released in June 2009.
In Western Australia, South Australia and Victoria the majority of crops are well placed leading into the spring months.
The prospects for winter crops in most regions in Queensland and the northern New South Wales grains belt have been adversely affected by below average winter rainfall. Crops in southern New South Wales are in urgent need of good rains, with some having already failed and the yield potential of most others declining rapidly.
Dr Sheales cautioned that rainfall in the spring months is crucial for crops in all regions to reach current potential.
“Of the major winter grains, wheat production is forecast to be 22.7 million tonnes in 2009-10, an upward revision from our June forecast of 22 million tonnes and 1.3 million tonnes more than the previous year,” Dr Sheales said.
Dr Sheales highlighted that although early September rainfall was helpful for crops in northern New South Wales and Queensland, yield potential had already been adversely affected because of the dry winter. However, lower expected crop production in these regions is likely to be more than offset by the improved outlook for Western Australia.
Barley production is forecast to increase by 1.1 million tonnes in 2009-10 to 7.9 million tonnes. Canola production is forecast to be 1.7 million tonnes in 2009-10, compared with 1.9 million tonnes harvested in the previous season. Canola yields in Western Australia are expected to remain favourable in 2009-10, but lower than the records achieved in 2008-09.
Dr Sheales noted summer crops plantings are still several months away, but the early signs are that the total area planted to summer crops will be lower in 2009-10.
“The area sown to summer crops is forecast to be 5 per cent lower in 2009-10, reflecting the continued lack of irrigation water for rice and cotton planting. The below average winter rainfall in the major summer cropping regions has also adversely affected the outlook for grain sorghum plantings,” Dr Sheales concluded.
Topics: agriculture, Australia, crops, Economic Outlook, Economy, environment, food, Governance, grain, winter crops
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